Seven Predictions on Global Mobile Games in 2021 (Ⅰ)
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3. Top Mobile RPGs Will Go Cross-Platform
The in-app purchase (IAP) revenues for Mid-Core games in the Western markets reached $10.4 billion, growing formidably by 26% year-over-year. And the Role-Playing Games (RPGs) kept up with the growth generating $3.3 billion in 2020 with a growth of 29% year-on-year.
In 2021, launching and scaling an RPG game will become even harder.
Monetising RPGs is largely driven by its big players. This monetization system is supported by optimized user acquisition, but in the post-IDFA era, how to acquire big players and identify them in the early stage will become a puzzle. Also, anyone who wants to play RPGs and make a big splash will have to be wealthy, so the new IDFA rules won’t have as much impact.
Monetization will go broad instead of deep.
With the inability to track where the players are coming from, grouping them into A/B segments will be more challenging.
Collaboration with IPs.
IDFA will put the focus back on lowering CPIs, and that’s where IPs help. We’ll see more IPs being integrated into existing titles through events.
In the near future, the current top RPGs will start offering PC clients and go cross-platform. RAID from Plarium is showing the way and it is only a matter of time before companies like Scopely follow suit.
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4. Throwdown for Supremacy of Mid-Core
Strategy games, which are composed out of 7 sub-genres, generated $5 billion in net revenue during 2020 growing IAP revenues by 21% while the downloads were up 9% year-over-year.
Supercell has dominated such games for several years, but Lilith is expected to catch up with Supercell by the end of the first quarter of this year. Supercell’s revenue will witness a further decline, which will lead to some changes in the company’s leadership and development strategy.
Just like last year, 4X continues to dominate the strategy genre, making more than the rest of 6 sub-genres combined. In the 4X subcategory, FunPlus is the biggest winner of 2020. After Top War’s impressive performance, we look forward to seeing more innovations in the core playing methods of such games. Very similar to RPGs, 4x games will also provide cross-platform play to offset the impact of IDFA new rules.
The second largest sub-genre is the good and old Build & Battle. This genre has matured to a point where it could use a massive innovation to both the progression mechanics and social gameplay.
While we’ve been constantly sceptical about the potential for MOBAs outside key Asian markets, the sub-genre continued to grow at the highest pace in the genre. The release of League of Legends: Wild Rift has a bright future, but it is anticipated that it will still be a niche game, with an annual revenue of no more than 50 million. Moreover, it is very likely that Riot Games will not launch a new game in 2021.
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